Colin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Best Vindication (or, A Protect Enjoy Built in the Forest)

Through The 21st-Century Card Counter,
Colin Jones interviews former learners who have absent off into the wild to ply
their trade. There’s a bit of publication bias, due to the fact we never listen to about the
teach wrecks, but that is easy to understand. The achievement tales are even now
entertaining and academic, and contain ample misery. Each time I read through
those people stories of prolonged shedding intervals, I mail CJ a mental thank-you for reminding
me—as he does all over his book—why counting playing cards isn’t for everyone,
definitely not an individual as soft as I am.

Now comes “Joe” [not his real name], who turned $10k into $1
million! Do you know how challenging that is? Picture getting thrown into jail, and
digging a two-mile tunnel with nothing but a plastic spoon. Joe did it devoid of
the spoon! That final result, and the 4-year journey it took, can make Joe an instant
authority on card counting in the, um, 21st century. Yeah, what
Colin mentioned.

The question I want to talk to Joe is: How significantly betting or
enjoying go over do you use? Apparently CJ has been divining my feelings, due to the fact
there it is on website page 71. Joe’s response requires no editing: “I seldom use any
betting protect, and I never use playing address. I’ll never participate in a hand improper on
reason to throw off the on line casino. … The on line casino has to be clever adequate to be
fooled, and you can by no means know what their strategy of a card counter is. They really don’t
have the exact training as you, so you should not believe they know almost everything you
know, or will even identify that a mistaken enjoy produced for protect is mistaken.” Amen,
brother Joe.

I wrote about this matter in Show CAA, back again in
2009, and with in excess of a 10 years of further practical experience, I would not improve a
term. I’d likely use more italics and daring, and exclamation details. Perhaps a handful of
emojis. Counters and other APs like to think that every single successful guess was owing to
their talent, and each individual reduction because of to “negative variance.” They like to occur up
with uber-intelligent ploys, and then attribute their results and longevity to individuals
ploys. Correlation does not suggest causality. Let us repeat that, all together

We get in touch with it FPS—Fancy-Participate in Syndrome, and Peter Griffin warned about it in The Concept of Blackjack a long time ago. Counters want to make slick moves. They want to not only gain revenue, but really feel truly clever performing it, and then make sure anyone else sees how clever they are. So they around-deviate from BS. Occasionally, I think these moi-driven counters deliberately stall on an index play, just to give absolutely everyone a chance to marvel at their cleverness. I see it all the time.

I utilized to view a gang of riffraff counters perform DD with each other. A number of compact cards would occur out and quickly they’re all betting the Fortunate Women. In a 50% double-deck activity, that guess does not get optimistic right until a legitimate +6.8 assuming each Queens of Hearts are are living (website page 68 of Exhibit CAA). And betting $100, it would be really worth it’s possible $2/hour, but the buddy counters are all slowing each and every other down making an attempt to search clever when they hit the sidebet.

Ian Andersen’s Burning the Tables in Las Vegas is
rife with this mentality. My counterargument is the simple theory of ITOTKO—It
Usually takes Just one To Know 1. If you are becoming watched by an additional counter, would standing
on 16 v T, or A7 v T, fool him? Of course not. Would betting hijinks—like only
boosting your wager immediately after a earn (in a constructive count, of program)—fool him? Of
program not. There is no way a card-counting engage in is likely to withstand a tape
evaluation, except the participate in is so small that the verdict is “inconclusive.”

The situations of best longevity that I’ve found (and I have lasted
above a 10 years at some casinos) are not because of to standing when they imagined you
really should hit, or restricting bet increases to a 2x issue, or regardless of what. Fairly, you
can survive a extensive time if no 1 appears to be at you. How do you stay invisible? (1)
By averting the risky personnel. Enjoy only in entrance of apathetic or silly
personnel. (2) By masking your wins. If they consider you’re a loser, they won’t
hassle looking at you. On the flip aspect, if they think you’re a regular
winner, or if you even have a solitary noteworthy gain, they may well search at your
participate in. And if they do, counting playing cards will not stand up to a tape review by
someone who can basically count. (3) By trying to keep the sessions limited adequate (maybe
just a shoe or two) that they just shrug their shoulders if you materialize to earn,
and you rotate the shifts and bosses you enjoy in entrance of. (4) By using a
disposable BP. I could go on, but I’m just repeating what I have penned in Exhibit
and in on-line posts ad nauseam.

And if the area is basic silly and doesn’t ever seem at
anyone or know what they’re wanting at, then pound the put to sand.

New card counters are not significantly eliminated from civilians, whose 1st views about counting come from pop culture. They believe Rainman is familiar with each card coming out of the shoe. They believe card counters strike difficult 17 when they know a 4 is coming (the following-card info scene with Austin Powers). They imagine the cat-and-mouse match is all about employing disguises to thwart facial recognition software. (I typically get questioned about my disguises, prior to something else.)

The dry fact is that the counter generates income through
tons of hrs of betting a lot more when the shoe is richer, and occasionally significantly additional
than the classic 1-12 or 1-16 pc-simulated spreads. The profitable
counters I know will guess whatsoever they can get away with, heatwise. If they can
get away with a min-to-max unfold, then they do it. Include plays just leave
funds on the table. Even betting include is largely pointless, since lots of
bosses will just dislike the point that at times you bet compact, and from time to time
massive, and they do not even bother to see if the wager variation correlates to the
rely (because they most likely can not depend).

The counters obtaining churned out by CJ’s Blackjack Apprenticeship
are making use of small deal with. I will generously say that maybe Ian Andersen’s ebook
was suitable for counters of a bygone era, but it surely is not the way to go
in the 21st century. The major alter is that there are so numerous
a lot more casinos now. Vegas is not the only game in town. Today’s card counter has
several spots to play, and faces a on line casino expertise pool that is stretched slender.
During the nation, there are twin-charge pit personnel who just can’t depend, and
who have no strategy what a counter even seems like, or they’re overburdened hoping
to look at 8 tables at once. Laying address is merely leaving revenue on the
desk. Most backoffs are dependent on participant recognition, not assessment of the enjoy.
The modern-day counter will just engage in it as really hard and extended as possible, and then
just shift on to the next on line casino.

The heretic Colin Jones has pretty much rewritten the reserve on card counting. Even splitting Tens is now on the table. At my sister’s Sweet Sixteen party, mama advised her that splitting Tens is taboo, but is it definitely taboo? You know, mama said a whole lot of items.